Three kinds of amount
| Shown as | Meaning | Is it a promise? |
|---|---|---|
| Est. recovery ~¥318,699/mo (assumes 30% recovered) | The revenue we expect you can recover. Attached only to cards where the formula can be verified | An estimate (a guide) |
| Revenue on this page ¥913,622/mo | Scale = an actual amount. The fact that “this much revenue currently rides on this page” | A fact |
| ▲¥441,000 from the previous period | Change = the increase or decrease from the previous period. It is not an amount you can recover | A fact |
| (no amount) | A card for which no well-founded amount can be built. It shows the finding and the facts only | — |
All amounts are normalized per 30 days. This is so cards can be compared on the same footing even when you change the period.
The “estimated recovery” formula
There is one formula for the estimate, used across all cards.
shortfall × pass-through to purchase × AOV × recovery rate (30% by default) = estimated recovery- Shortfall: the number of purchases missing compared with your site’s own measured value (for example, if mobile CVR matched desktop, how many more purchases there would have been)
- Pass-through to purchase: the share that goes on to buy from there (measured)
- AOV: the measured value for the dimension the card is about (mobile AOV, if the card is about mobile)
- Recovery rate: the assumption that you won’t win all of it back even if you act. It’s the only assumption — 30% by default, and adjustable per site from 10% to 50%
All three factors being multiplied are “numbers actually measured on your site”. Industry averages and outside surveys are never used in the amount calculation. The reasoning and worked examples are published in How we estimate impact.
Opening the evidence
Open Details ▾ on a card and a table shows the four numbers above and where each one comes from (numerator, denominator, what it’s compared against). Multiply them on a calculator and you get the figure shown. “Where does 379 come from?” can also be traced back one step further.
Changing the recovery rate
Under Manage sites → Settings → Recovery rate, choose from 10% / 20% / 30% / 50%. The rate you chose is always shown on the card as “assumes N% recovered”. If it doesn’t match your experience, read it accordingly (if you think half, halve it).
Common misunderstandings
- Adding up every card’s amount doesn’t give you the revenue you’ll gain. The same visitors are counted on several cards (mobile CVR and the cart path include the same people), so adding them double-counts. The amounts are a guide for setting priorities.
- The amount isn’t guaranteed. It’s a guide to the scale you can expect if you improve. That’s exactly why we publish the whole calculation method.
- Cards without enough data show no amount. When the number of events behind the judgment is small, ratios are unstable, so in that case we show only facts such as counts.